Iran

The Iranian regime’s fundamental objective is to ensure the survival and security of the Islamic Republic, which was founded in 1979 following the Iranian Revolution. This shapes – directly or indirectly – all of its actions.

Iran has an acute historical sense of vulnerability and believes that it can rely only on itself. As a result, beyond the survival of the regime, it has three key regional aims – to be a leading regional power, to contain perceived Western influence and hostility, and to protect Shi’a communities and sites across the Middle East. It also maintains a fierce, ideological hostility to Israel – regarding it as its arch enemy – that is part of the regime’s DNA.

Iran’s focus on survival means it is flexible, pragmatic and transactional – including in relation to its international partnerships: it is prepared to work with other state threat actors such as China and Russia if it sees a benefit for itself in doing so, as reflected in its recent support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Iran’s doctrine of ‘strategic depth’ – avoiding direct conflict with superior conventional powers and ensuring it does not enter into conflict within its own borders – has led it to develop ‘asymmetric’ capabilities such as offensive cyber and a network of regional militant and terrorist organisations across the Middle East which can undertake hostile activity on its behalf, providing it with a deniable means of threatening its adversaries. Iran has also sought to maintain the option of developing nuclear weapons as the ultimate security guarantee.

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