Crash (exploit) and burn Securing the offensive cyber supply chain to counter China in cyberspace
Key findings:
Zero-day exploitation is becoming more difficult, opaque, and expensive, leading to “feast-or-famine” contract cycles.
Middlemen with prior government connections further drive up costs and create inefficiency in the US and Five Eyes (FVEYs) market, while eroding trust between buyers and sellers.
China’s domestic cyber pipeline dwarfs that of the United States. China is also increasingly moving to recruit from the Middle East and East Asia.
The United States relies on international talent for its zero-day capabilities, and its domestic talent investment is sparse – focused on defense rather than offense.
The US acquisition processes favor large prime contractors and prioritize extremely high levels of accuracy, trust, and stealth, which can create market inefficiencies and overly index on high-cost, exquisite zero-day exploit procurements.
China’s acquisition processes use decentralized contracting methods. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) outsources operations, shortens contract cycles, and prolongs the life of an exploit through additional resourcing and “n-day” usage.
US cybersecurity goals, coupled with “Big Tech” market dominance, are strategic counterweights to the US offensive capability program, demonstrating a strategic trade-off between economic prosperity and national security.
China’s offensive cyber industry is already heavily integrated with artificial intelligence (AI) institutions, and China’s private sector has been proactively using AI for cyber operations.
Given the opaque international market for zero-day exploits, preference among government customers for full exploit chains leveraging multiple exploit primitives, and the increase in bug collisions, governments can almost never be sure they truly have a “unique capability.”
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Crash (exploit) and burn: Securing the offensive cyber supply chain to counter China in cyberspace
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